Data Methodology & Sources

Understand the source, update frequency, and reliability of each data point

Last updated: 2026-03-23 | Day 23 of conflict

Important Disclaimer

This platform is a Monte Carlo scenario simulator. Base probabilities (44.6% short-term decline, 24.3% medium recovery, 28.4% long-term prosperity, 2.7% total collapse) represent expert subjective judgment, not mathematical model outputs. Actual probabilities may differ significantly. This is not investment advice.

📊 Real-Time Data

Oil Price (Brent Crude)

High

Source: Yahoo Finance API

Update: 5-min cache

Real-time Brent crude futures price, measuring global energy market shock

News Feed

High

Source: GDELT Project + WorldMonitor

Update: Real-time

Global news aggregation, auto-categorized as military/diplomatic/commercial/energy

Social Media Sentiment

Medium

Source: Reddit API (r/dubai, r/dubairealestate, r/UAE)

Update: 5-min cache

Keyword-based sentiment analysis of Reddit community discussions

Market Data

High

Source: Yahoo Finance API

Update: 3-min refresh

DFM index, exchange rates and other market indicators

🔄 Model Estimates

DOSI Score

Medium

Source: Based on conflict days + shipping data

Update: Updates with real-time data

Dubai Outlook Score Index. Note: trend changes are simulated, not calculated from historical data.

Scenario Probabilities (Monte Carlo)

Estimate/Simulated

Source: Expert estimates + simulation

Update: Updates with simulation parameters

Based on expert judgment of conflict scenarios, calculated via Monte Carlo simulation. Base probabilities are subjective estimates, not model outputs.

Shipping Disruption Index

Medium

Source: Derived from oil price

Update: Updates with oil price

Derived from oil price changes relative to baseline, not actual shipping measurements

Risk Assessment (VaR)

Estimate/Simulated

Source: Monte Carlo simulation

Update: Updates with simulation

Calculated from loss distribution over 10,000 simulated scenarios

📋 Static Reference Data

GDP Growth Data

High

Source: Official statistics (non-real-time)

Update: Quarterly update

UAE official GDP statistics, subject to revision

Nine-Dimension Scores

Medium

Source: Comprehensive analysis estimate

Update: Manual update

Composite scores based on multi-source data, highly subjective

Recommendation Engine Logic

Estimate/Simulated

Source: Rule engine + scenario probabilities

Update: Updates with scenarios

Decision tree-based rules combined with user profile and scenario probabilities

DOSI Score Calculation Method

Weight Allocation

Capital Flow30%

Safety Score25%

Economic Vitality25%

Quality of Life20%

Calculation Formula

DOSI =

CapitalScore × 0.30 +

SafetyScore × 0.25 +

VitalityScore × 0.25 +

QolScore × 0.20

(Trend changes are simulated values)

⚠️ Known Limitations

DOSI trend (↑↓→) is randomly simulated, not calculated from historical data
Safety score assumes linear conflict duration impact, non-linear risks not considered
Quality of life uses proxy indicators like golden visas, not direct surveys

Monte Carlo Simulation Method

Base Scenario Probabilities

Short-term Decline44.6%

Medium Recovery24.3%

Long-term Prosperity28.4%

Total Collapse2.7%

Note: These are expert subjective judgments, not model outputs

Simulation Parameters

Iterations1,000

Conflict Days Range1-90

Oil Price Range$80-200/bbl

Hormuz Disruption0-100%

How Probabilities Are Adjusted

Base probabilities are dynamically adjusted based on user-controlled simulation parameters (conflict days, oil price, Hormuz blockade intensity, capital inflow speed, sanctions intensity). Adjusted probabilities are normalized to sum to 100%.